Brainwashing American Investor Book Street
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During each correction, I give hope or courage to investors to refrain from the damaging inertia that results from attempting to determine: how low may we go; how long will this last? Investors who add to their portfolios for the duration of downturns without variation experience higher Market Values for the duration of the next advance. For just as surely as there is a Santa Claus for each five year old, there is another “value stock” rally for each fingernail biting fifty-five year old. Value Stocks have entered the sixth month of a wide downturn, and almost 50% of all Investment Grade companies are now down more than 15% from their highs. Seventy percent of those are down more than 20%. Working Capital Model users will have to be running out of cash in regards to now, while they add more issues to their portfolios, and more shares to existent holdings. Investors recognise that good companies seldom close their doors, or even cut their dividends. Corrections are as much a portion of the normal Market Cycle as rallies, and they may be brought regarding by either bad news or good news. (Yes, that’s what I meant to say.) Investors always over-analyze when prices become weak and lose their mutual sense when prices are high, thence perpetuating the “buy high, trade low” Wall Street lunacy. Waiting for the perfective moment to jump into a falling market is as ludicrous a system as taking losses on investment grade companies and keeping cash. Corrections in both Equity and Income securities create the same kind of hysteria as a spring sale at Macy’s… but in reverse. The rudimentary quality of value securities does not change plainly because their prices fall in response to market conditions. When all value stocks are moving lower, it’s an opportunity, not a problem. When all [insert: bank, insurance, agriculture, oil, entertainment, travel, transportation, advertising] are lower, it’s an opportunity, not a problem. During each correction, I’m astonished at the shocked reaction of the Media, the confused explanations emanating from the Market Gurus, and the fabulously poor counsel streaming forth from the Oracles of Wall Street… each last one of them. It’s no wonder that the intermediate capitalist is in a state of panic! If they could buy a new car, a new business suit, or a new house for half price, they would be ecstatic! Why does a lower price for a part of a high quality stock make them go bonkers? The Conventional Wisdom from Wall Street makes it so; the Conventional Wisdom from CPA land reinforces it; the Conventional Wisdom from financial advisors preys upon it. Experienced Investor Wisdom is boldly different. For example: (1) Corrections are always buying opportunities, the broader the correction, the better. Wall Street thrives on the fear and suffering. (2) Rallies are always selling opportunities. Wall Street would rather stroke your greed button with visions of upward only prices. Your accountant doesn’t want you to take profits, and has you convinced that losses are genuinely better than gains. (3) Higher Interest rates are good for investors… so are lower interest rates. Wall Street doesn’t actually care. They push short-term vehicles to address investors’ fear of price fluctuation, and shun simplex income devising schemes while they advertize complex derivatives that always unwind badly. (4) The calendar year is of no peculiar investment relevance. (5) Investment performance analysis must be an goal to be attained based program monitor rather of 365-day horse race with beside the point Market indicators. Wall Street used to agree with (4) and (5). Since then they have learned that they make more cash from unhappy investors. Repetition is good for your CPU, so pardon me for reinforcing what I’ve said in the face of each correction since 1979… if you don’t love corrections, you genuinely don’t perceive the financial markets. Don’t be insulted, very few financial pros want you to see it this way and, in fact, Institutional Wall Street loves it when person investors panic in the face of uncertainty. But uncertainty is the regulation playing field for investors, and hindsight isn’t welcome in the stadium. Rarely do corrections kill good companies, no matter how bad the news, how huge the scandal, or how troubled the economic outlook. If you’ve been laying out capital in quality companies and have a secure cash flow within your portfolios, you will weather any storm. Loss taking is never smart, savvy, or necessary… even if it cuts the tax bill. Buy more of lower priced good companies while sustaining smart diversification according to the Working Capital Model. Add to lower priced income securities to reduce the cost per share. Make your retirement plan contributions yesterday! There is an Investment Mindset Solution for the difficulties that most people have dealing with corrections, recessions, inflation and the Red Sox. Bad news brings about opportunities; so does good news. I’ve never understood why yard-sale prices in the stock market are so scary. And recession? Most people don’t realize that a recession is just two successive quarters of lower GDP. Not a big deal until it happens, and then, genuinely good things get done to fix it! In recent years, Wall Street and the media have turned the routine of laying out capital into a competitory event. What was once a long-term, goal-directed action has become a series of on a monthly basis and quarterly sprints. The direction of the market isn’t closely as primary as the activenesses we take in anticipation of the next alter in direction. Performance evaluation needs to be “rethunk” in terms of cycles! The problems, and the solutions, boil down to focus, understanding, and retraining. You need to focus on the intents of the securities in the portfolio. You need to grasp and receive the normal conduct of your securities in the face of dissimilar environmental conditions. You need to get over your obsession with calendar amount of time Market Value analysis, and hug a more manageable asset percentage approach that centers on your portfolio’s Working Capital. You need to stop looking at your account on line so often and go to the movies. You need to elect new persons who know how to connect the economic dots and who will restructure the tax code to eliminate all taxation of investment earnings. Corrections fuel rallies, it’s just a matter of time. But for now, relax and take pleasure in this correction. It’s your invitation to the fun and games of the next rally, when you will see that correction is spelled o-p-p-o-r-t-u-n-i-t-y after all. Note: The 2nd Edition of “Brainwashing” is here! |
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